Failed on the battlefield, Russia has spent months trying to dismantle the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the fragile wartime accord that has, so far, kept global food prices low and fed farmers in Ukraine and everywhere Gave relief. Like clockwork, Moscow has repeatedly tried to hold Ukraine’s food exports hostage – the latest extension of the Black Sea export deal was due to expire on Thursday.
Failed on the battlefield, Russia has spent months trying to dismantle the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the fragile wartime accord that has, so far, kept global food prices low and fed farmers in Ukraine and everywhere Gave relief. Like clockwork, Moscow has repeatedly tried to hold Ukraine’s food exports hostage – the latest extension of the Black Sea export deal was due to expire on Thursday.
But it’s complicated. China, a longtime buyer of Ukrainian grain, has been the biggest beneficiary of the grain deal, which snatched some 7 million metric tons – or about one-quarter – of the total exports unlocked under the initiative. Russia can stand on its neighbor’s neck, or play nice with its new best friend—but not both.
Caitlin Welsh, director of the Global Food Security Program, said “China is the largest recipient of any grain exported from Ukraine under the deal” and “has a strong interest in continuing the Black Sea Grain Initiative.” Center for Strategic and International Studies.
This has been a problem for Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose hands are now tied by concerns about Russia’s key ally. It is not just China. Turkey, one of the few countries that has dodged Western sanctions and remained in Moscow’s good graces, is the third biggest beneficiary of the initiative and also has a vested interest in the deal’s continuation. This further limits Moscow’s leverage and underlines its uneven dynamics with both Recep Tayyip Erdogan, still the Turkish president, and Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader.
“Politically, the deal became a liability for Russia,” said Alexandra Prokopenko, a visiting fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations and a former official at the Russian Central Bank. “It shows very clearly that Putin needs Erdogan and Xi more than Putin himself.”
The UN-brokered Black Sea Grain Initiative was signed in July 2022 as a diplomatic effort to bring down global food prices, which skyrocketed following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which cut off wheat exports and fertilisers. Production was disrupted on both. Since taking effect, the deal has allowed more than 30 million metric tons of exports to reach global markets, about half of which have gone to developing countries. But Moscow’s repeated attempts to extract new concessions and pressure Ukraine—while avoiding stepping on China’s toes—turn each termination of the deal into a game of fracas that Washington can only gloat over. Could
Tensions have been in full swing in recent weeks as diplomats scramble again to push the deal ahead of its deadline on Thursday. The worst is averted: Erdogan announced on Wednesday that negotiators had secured a two-month extension. But this comes at a cost of its own: the frequent short-term nature of export deal renewals means that food producers, distributors and exporters have a hard time planning ahead. Russia, as before, is attempting to leverage more Ukrainian food against the easing of sanctions that have affected its own agricultural sector; It has particularly pushed for the reopening of a Russian ammonia pipeline (used in fertilizer production) that runs through Ukraine. But it’s hard to ignore the wishes of your major partners.
“Russia’s calculus hinges on how happy they want their allies to be,” said Joseph Glauber, a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute and former chief economist at the US Department of Agriculture. For now, Beijing can get grain from Australia and other sources in the south. But Ukraine remains a black soil bread basket. “I think terminating the agreement would be viewed very negatively by China and other developing countries.”
China’s interests figure heavily in Russian calculations as China has been Moscow’s major partner since the invasion of Ukraine, increasingly both politically and economically. Beijing has in the past stressed the importance of the grain deal’s continuation, even including it in its 12-point peace plan.
Moscow’s refusal to pursue the deal could lead to new tensions in relations with Beijing. The furthest Russia has gone is briefly suspending its participation in October, although it backtracked a few days later. Christopher Barrett, an agricultural economist at Cornell University, said in March that Russia’s full withdrawal could jeopardize its relations with grain-importing countries like China.
“While they are unwilling to speak out against Russian aggression in international forums,” he added, “one naturally wonders how long they will continue with that tacit support for Russia if Russia continues to threaten their economies and starts harming their people directly?”
Nevertheless, Russia has done its best to strangle Ukraine’s agricultural sector. In talks in March, Moscow agreed to extend the deal for only 60 days, half the length of the previous extension. Experts warn that a short extension adds to the pressures facing Ukrainian producers, who are already struggling to cope with low prices and ongoing shipping and inspection challenges.
“I don’t think Russia really has the capacity to refuse to pursue the deal,” Barrett said. “It’s trying to make things as complicated as possible for Ukraine.”
In addition to strangling Ukrainian producers, Russia’s efforts also threaten EU solidarity with Kiev. Last month, several Eastern European countries banned imports of Ukrainian grain in a bid to garner political support among angry local farmers.
“One way or another, Ukraine is suffering from this,” said Glauber, who added that both production and total exports are down again this year. “The long-term effects of the war have really dealt a huge blow to Ukraine’s agriculture.”
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